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Grape growers will dump shiraz
Despite assurances that the winegrapes surplus is behind us, and despite stories of a 10,000 tonne shortfall in the eastern states, significant amounts of shiraz grapes look like being dumped on the ground this vintage in Western Australia.
Growers in the Gingin area have 250 tonnes of unsold fruit and harvest is only a week or three away. One of the major winemakers is known to be buying 2,000 tonnes of shiraz they don't need. Only contractual obligations have saved their growers.
Eastern state wineries are showing no interest in transporting must across the Nullabor. Fosters is an exception, having bought around 4,500 tonnes of shiraz late in 2007.
Although shiraz can be used in white varieties as well as red, wineries have had their fingers burnt holding too much inventory. Evans and Tate got their torso burnt. Theirs was a special case; management didn't understand the concept of inventory.
The surplus comes about because wineries offered contracts for shiraz to warm climate areas north of Perth then later decided they preferred cool climate shiraz with a Margaret River brand name. Warm climate shiraz from the Gingin area has nonetheless produced award-winning wine and is harvested at much lower yields than in the Riverina or Murray Valley.
Horticulture is not a profitable industry and the experience of being stuck with a sizeable amount of unsaleable fruit will cause a number of producers to leave the industry. That's a nice, clean way of saying go broke; lose your house.
Grafting over to another variety is high risk and costs a year's production at least. You'd only do it if you knew you were going to be in the industry for another ten years. Good chance that whatever you graft over to (dictated by the wineries' current needs) will be in over-supply in five years' time. Write it down: sauvignon blanc in the south and verdelho in the north.
One grower I know is likely to sell his farm after he's pulled out the vineyard. He can sell the trellising and the property is worth more as a lifestyle block than as a producing, marginal vineyard.
I have an idea for a new brand; it's called Shiraz Lake. Like to invest? Give me a call on 040 990 8133 and I'll sell you some grapes.


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